BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Crissal Thrasher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Crissal Thrasher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+83%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Crissal Thrasher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Crissal Thrasher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Crissal Thrasher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.040.000.08
20210.040.000.08
20220.040.000.08
20230.040.000.09
20240.040.000.09

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Crissal Thrasher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShivwitzUTAH72019
ToroweapARIZONA32018
OraibiARIZONA22018
Navajo TrailARIZONA22018
Peach SpringARIZONA12005
SeligmanARIZONA12009
TorreonNEW-MEXICO11996
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.