BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Couch's Kingbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Couch's Kingbird in Texas has surged: up 852% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+852%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Couch's Kingbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Couch's Kingbird has surged in Texas: up 852% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Couch's Kingbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Couch's Kingbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.93 (95% range 0.63–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Couch's Kingbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.93 (95% range 0.63–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.870.561.2
20260.890.581.2
20270.900.591.2
20280.920.611.2
20290.930.631.2

Couch's Kingbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Couch's Kingbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lag Atascosa2320241971
Raymondville2320241972
Three Rivers2120241994
San Pedro1820231996
Sejita1320241997
Hobson1220241993
George West1220242001
Rachal1020231973
L. Atascosa Nwr920231998
Loyola Beach820091995
Kingsville720241987
Agua Nueva620231981
Laredo620231994
Brite620242012
Encinal 2620242011
Loyola Beach 2520242010
Lone Oak520022000
Catarina 3420242018
Heidelberg420242013
Randado320241982
Campbellton320231996
Cavasara Cr.320231995
Hondo320242008
El Sauz320231993
Dilley320242018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.