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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Couch's Kingbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Couch's Kingbird in Texas has surged: up 854% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+854%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Couch's Kingbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Couch's Kingbird has surged in Texas: up 854% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Couch's Kingbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Couch's Kingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.64–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Couch's Kingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.64–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.880.581.2
20270.900.591.2
20280.910.611.2
20290.930.621.2
20300.940.641.2

Couch's Kingbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Couch's Kingbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three Rivers2820251994
San Pedro1820231996
Raymondville1520251972
George West1320252001
Sejita1320241997
Lag Atascosa1220251971
L. Atascosa Nwr1020251998
Loyola Beach 2920252010
Loyola Beach820091995
Catarina 3820252018
Kingsville720241987
Agua Nueva620231981
Laredo620231994
Hobson520251993
Lone Oak520022000
Hondo520252008
Manor 2520252025
Cavasara Cr.420251995
Heidelberg420242013
Rachal320251973
Campbellton320231996
El Sauz320231993
Zapata219871967
Randado220251982
Goliad Prairie220092006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.