BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Couch's Kingbird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Couch's Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

11×Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Couch's Kingbird has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Couch's Kingbird In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Couch's Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.31–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Couch's Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.31–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.530.250.81
20270.540.260.82
20280.560.280.84
20290.580.300.85
20300.590.310.87

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Couch's Kingbird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS282025
HobsonTEXAS52025
Lone OakTEXAS52002
CampbelltonTEXAS32023
FanninTEXAS12025
BriteTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.