BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Yellowthroat In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.48
20260.130.000.48
20270.130.000.47
20280.130.000.47
20290.120.000.47

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arenosa CrkTEXAS72000
Thornton 3TEXAS52024
RhomeTEXAS32024
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA21974
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22011
Lone OakTEXAS22009
Oak GroveTEXAS21977
Peach CreekTEXAS21984
LydiaTEXAS22022
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA11970
LocoOKLAHOMA11972
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11973
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12023
BeggsOKLAHOMA12019
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12000
NobleOKLAHOMA12011
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12024
DuncanOKLAHOMA12021
SkiatookOKLAHOMA11993
MuldoonTEXAS12023
Massey LakeTEXAS12007
OakwoodTEXAS11979
KosseTEXAS12003
ThorntonTEXAS11977
OsageTEXAS11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.