BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Raven In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Common Raven in BCR 4 has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+87%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Raven has surged in BCR 4: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Common Raven In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.2–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.2–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.21.17.2
20274.21.27.2
20284.21.27.3
20294.21.27.3
20304.31.27.3

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Common Raven in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Galena (Short)ALASKA352025
ColdfootALASKA132025
RubyALASKA132025
NorthwayALASKA122025
Nicholai SlALASKA102025
PetersvilleALASKA102025
Tower BluffsALASKA82025
HomerALASKA81982
Anchor RiverALASKA82025
Tangle LakesALASKA81987
Mt. FairplayALASKA82025
CircleALASKA72025
KuskulanaALASKA72025
SlanaALASKA62024
KalifonskyALASKA62025
WillowALASKA62025
Bear CreekALASKA61991
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA62025
Chatanika RALASKA52024
Chena RiverALASKA51988
Hather CreekALASKA52019
DeltaALASKA52024
MonahanALASKA42021
CantwellALASKA42025
Donelly DomeALASKA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.