BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-82%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has collapsed in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 91% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-91%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 91% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.0019
20261.80.0018
20271.40.0018
20280.930.0017
20290.490.0017

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RaymondvilleTEXAS362024
ProgresoTEXAS292011
HeidelbergTEXAS162024
MillettTEXAS92012
KingsvilleTEXAS52024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS52010
RachalTEXAS42021
Catarina 3TEXAS42024
LaredoTEXAS41998
La PryorTEXAS32017
Catarina 2TEXAS32011
Encinal 2TEXAS32024
EncinalTEXAS22010
San YgnacioTEXAS21971
CatarinaTEXAS22010
GuerraTEXAS22010
Pedro CreekTEXAS21996
Millett 2TEXAS22016
Agua NuevaTEXAS12019
ZapataTEXAS11984
RandadoTEXAS12019
Mirando CityTEXAS12012
George WestTEXAS12024
HondoTEXAS12024
El IndioTEXAS12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.