BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 0.52 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.860.002.3
20270.840.002.3
20280.830.002.2
20290.820.002.2
20300.810.002.2

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mormon LakeARIZONA111975
Peña BlancaARIZONA81984
SunizonaARIZONA51986
Happy JackARIZONA42025
WilliamsARIZONA32025
FlagstaffARIZONA22022
BlueARIZONA21991
MaineARIZONA22017
Skull ValleyARIZONA22023
AlpineARIZONA22017
PrescottARIZONA12014
PomereneARIZONA12019
San SimonARIZONA12016
PatagoniaARIZONA12003
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12025
Forest LakesARIZONA12025
PinetopARIZONA12022
AmadoARIZONA11999
McnealARIZONA12025
Clay SpringARIZONA12021
SprucedaleARIZONA12025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12022
RuckerARIZONA12002
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12025
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.