BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 86% by 2030 — from 5.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.006.1
20271.50.005.9
20281.30.005.7
20291.00.005.4
20300.800.005.2

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KendallFLORIDA601991
CitrusFLORIDA552025
BrowardFLORIDA341973
Shawano 2FLORIDA342011
OcalaFLORIDA272025
ClewistonFLORIDA252023
Indiantown 2FLORIDA212025
AlturasFLORIDA191986
WebbFLORIDA162025
St LucieFLORIDA142025
Myakka HeadFLORIDA132011
ShawanoFLORIDA132002
PinelandsFLORIDA122024
Lake BuffumFLORIDA112024
CroomFLORIDA102025
Vero BeachFLORIDA92012
Boca RatonFLORIDA81994
NobletonFLORIDA82017
HomesteadFLORIDA82025
Babcock RnchFLORIDA81990
ChassahowitzFLORIDA82025
FlemingtonFLORIDA71999
PinecrestFLORIDA62024
SalvistaFLORIDA61979
GardnerFLORIDA61999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.