BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-85%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 85% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.006.1
20261.50.005.8
20271.30.005.6
20281.00.005.3
20290.760.005.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KendallFLORIDA601991
CitrusFLORIDA382024
BrowardFLORIDA341973
Shawano 2FLORIDA342011
ClewistonFLORIDA252023
OcalaFLORIDA232024
AlturasFLORIDA191986
WebbFLORIDA162024
St LucieFLORIDA142024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA132011
ShawanoFLORIDA132002
HomesteadFLORIDA122024
PinelandsFLORIDA122024
Lake BuffumFLORIDA112024
GoetheFLORIDA112024
Vero BeachFLORIDA92012
Boca RatonFLORIDA81994
NobletonFLORIDA82017
Babcock RnchFLORIDA81990
ChassahowitzFLORIDA82024
FlemingtonFLORIDA71999
PinecrestFLORIDA62024
SalvistaFLORIDA61979
GardnerFLORIDA61999
Ridge HarborFLORIDA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.