BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±464.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±464.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±464.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.04
20250.000.000.04
20260.000.000.04
20270.000.000.04
20280.000.000.04

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red BankTENNESSEE131978
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA41979
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA31996
KittanningPENNSYLVANIA32004
Potomac ParkMARYLAND21999
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK22017
SigelPENNSYLVANIA21997
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA21989
VirginiaPENNSYLVANIA21971
HometownPENNSYLVANIA21998
LovellTENNESSEE22002
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA21973
TradeALABAMA12014
SummittALABAMA11972
Pine GroveALABAMA11995
Sunny EveALABAMA11998
Smyer LakeALABAMA11969
MaytownALABAMA11992
BirminghamALABAMA11994
ChildersburgALABAMA11997
BrooksvilleALABAMA11995
LakeviewALABAMA12009
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA12001
StevensonALABAMA12018
OneontaALABAMA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.