BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
242Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.000.92
20260.320.000.89
20270.300.000.87
20280.270.000.84
20290.250.000.82

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA272024
Dowling ParkFLORIDA212023
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI161987
Broad BranchFLORIDA112024
HildrethFLORIDA92009
Alligator PtFLORIDA92024
Santa RosaFLORIDA82003
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA72019
Cross CityFLORIDA72023
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA72023
Alabama PtALABAMA62002
Seminole HlsFLORIDA62000
Hildreth 2FLORIDA62024
CouncilGEORGIA62021
WeberGEORGIA62024
TelogiaFLORIDA51985
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA52023
BlackwaterFLORIDA52024
CallahanFLORIDA52024
Everett CityGEORGIA51992
WaycrossGEORGIA51984
LacombeLOUISIANA51983
ElbertaALABAMA42022
BelmontFLORIDA42024
NixonFLORIDA41986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.