BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
243Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.81). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.000.91
20270.320.000.89
20280.290.000.86
20290.270.000.84
20300.240.000.81

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI161987
Broad BranchFLORIDA122025
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA112025
HildrethFLORIDA92009
Santa RosaFLORIDA82003
RaefordNORTH-CAROLINA82025
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA72019
BlackwaterFLORIDA72025
Cross CityFLORIDA72023
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA72023
Alabama PtALABAMA62002
Seminole HlsFLORIDA62000
CouncilGEORGIA62021
HeadlightGEORGIA62025
WeberGEORGIA62025
TelogiaFLORIDA51985
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA52023
BelmontFLORIDA52025
CallahanFLORIDA52024
Everett CityGEORGIA51992
WaycrossGEORGIA51984
LacombeLOUISIANA51983
ElbertaALABAMA42022
Dowling ParkFLORIDA42025
Alligator PtFLORIDA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.