BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.10–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.10–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.090.96
20260.530.090.96
20270.530.090.96
20280.530.100.96
20290.530.100.96

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DellARKANSAS182024
KennettMISSOURI122024
HaytiMISSOURI102021
BerwickLOUISIANA52018
WhittonARKANSAS41985
BlodgettMISSOURI42024
WilsonARKANSAS32024
DeventerMISSOURI32024
South BendARKANSAS22006
HarrisburgARKANSAS21988
SaffellARKANSAS22003
MaynardARKANSAS21994
CarlisleLOUISIANA21987
FloydLOUISIANA21997
River RoadLOUISIANA22021
Baton RougeLOUISIANA22024
EudoraARKANSAS11973
HughesARKANSAS11990
West TylerARKANSAS11982
AugustaARKANSAS11992
EnglandARKANSAS12011
UlmARKANSAS11986
FreetownLOUISIANA11989
Morgan CityLOUISIANA11986
RoselandLOUISIANA11974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.