BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.10
20270.010.000.10
20280.000.000.10
20290.000.000.10
20300.000.000.10

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CochraneWISCONSIN61966
Money CreekMINNESOTA52024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN51974
HamtramckMICHIGAN41983
Cherry ValILLINOIS31991
Bell OakMICHIGAN32004
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN32015
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21988
New BuffaloMICHIGAN21993
KnappMINNESOTA22024
LockportOHIO22022
N BaltimoreOHIO21993
DresserWISCONSIN21993
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN21970
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN22022
South BendINDIANA11984
KnoxINDIANA11990
MiddleburyINDIANA11991
Columbia CtyINDIANA12014
EllisINDIANA11975
LagrangeINDIANA12025
Indiana DuneINDIANA12004
FestinaIOWA11970
ScottvilleMICHIGAN11994
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.