BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Nighthawk In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.11
20260.010.000.10
20270.000.000.10
20280.000.000.10
20290.000.000.10

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CochraneWISCONSIN61966
Money CreekMINNESOTA52024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN51974
HamtramckMICHIGAN41983
Cherry ValILLINOIS31991
Bell OakMICHIGAN32004
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN32015
Big RapidsMICHIGAN21988
New BuffaloMICHIGAN21993
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA22014
KnappMINNESOTA22024
LockportOHIO22022
N BaltimoreOHIO21993
DresserWISCONSIN21993
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN21970
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN22022
South BendINDIANA11984
KnoxINDIANA11990
MiddleburyINDIANA11991
Columbia CtyINDIANA12014
EllisINDIANA11975
LagrangeINDIANA12024
Indiana DuneINDIANA12004
FestinaIOWA11970
ScottvilleMICHIGAN11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.