BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.006.3
20271.20.006.1
20281.00.005.9
20290.830.005.7
20300.640.005.5

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E GeorgetownTEXAS351979
HenriettaTEXAS162022
CreedmoreTEXAS162014
WalburgTEXAS122025
DuncanOKLAHOMA112025
Three RiversTEXAS102025
DuranTEXAS101999
College StnTEXAS91990
Wolfe CityTEXAS81987
OlneyTEXAS72024
LocoOKLAHOMA61985
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA52018
LockhartTEXAS52025
HobsonTEXAS42025
GainesvilleTEXAS42025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA32021
SchroederTEXAS31996
Oak GroveTEXAS31989
WeatherfordTEXAS32025
FanninTEXAS32014
MegargelTEXAS32024
NobleOKLAHOMA22022
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA22025
Lone OakTEXAS22019
Massey LakeTEXAS22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.