BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
132Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.5 (95% range 2.5–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.5 (95% range 2.5–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.52.56.5
20264.52.56.5
20274.52.56.5
20284.52.56.5
20294.52.56.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MarslandNEBRASKA712021
SkellytownTEXAS342024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA252024
HardestyOKLAHOMA212024
CaprockNEW-MEXICO202024
AbarrCOLORADO152024
LamesaTEXAS152024
DaltonNEBRASKA142024
PlainsTEXAS142024
PepNEW-MEXICO132024
NeegrandeCOLORADO112024
HookerOKLAHOMA112024
Mica ButteCOLORADO101987
StonehamCOLORADO92021
RatonNEW-MEXICO91994
MiamiTEXAS92024
KeyesOKLAHOMA82024
StilesTEXAS82024
PanhandleTEXAS82024
LimonCOLORADO72018
PritchettCOLORADO72024
RockportCOLORADO72024
FeltOKLAHOMA72024
RankinTEXAS72024
MidlandTEXAS72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.