BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+122%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.7–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.7–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.64.8
20273.21.64.8
20283.21.64.8
20293.21.74.8
20303.21.74.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Miles CityMONTANA392025
Railroad ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA382022
PowdervilleMONTANA282025
Thunder BasinWYOMING182025
DwyerWYOMING172025
MeadowdaleWYOMING172025
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA152025
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA152025
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA142024
GlenrockWYOMING141977
LocateMONTANA132025
Cabin CreekMONTANA122025
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA122022
Caballa CrkWYOMING122021
SavageMONTANA112025
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA112025
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA112025
Hehn DrawMONTANA102025
NewcastleWYOMING102024
HighwoodMONTANA92025
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA92025
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA92019
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA92004
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA92005
BillWYOMING92018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.