BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-53%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
210Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.830.002.4
20260.770.002.4
20270.710.002.3
20280.650.002.3
20290.590.002.2

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO502024
Rose WellsARIZONA141978
ToroweapARIZONA142019
ZeniffARIZONA121984
MesitaCOLORADO112024
CokedaleCOLORADO102024
WellingtonUTAH102002
Pinos CreekCOLORADO91990
Wilson CreekCOLORADO82024
BasinCOLORADO82023
Fletcher PkWYOMING82024
SawmillARIZONA72014
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO72022
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO72001
Willow CreekUTAH72024
Lost Cr. ResUTAH72016
AlamosaCOLORADO62024
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO62023
PinonCOLORADO62024
La SalUTAH62000
Sybille CynWYOMING62024
AspenCOLORADO52010
RadiumCOLORADO52011
GardnerCOLORADO52024
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO52000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.