BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
213Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Nighthawk In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.002.4
20270.730.002.3
20280.680.002.3
20290.620.002.2
20300.560.002.2

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO392025
Rose WellsARIZONA141978
ToroweapARIZONA142019
ZeniffARIZONA121984
CokedaleCOLORADO122025
WellingtonUTAH102002
Pinos CreekCOLORADO91990
AlamosaCOLORADO82025
BicknellUTAH82025
SawmillARIZONA72014
SeligmanARIZONA72025
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO72022
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO72001
Willow CreekUTAH72024
Lost Cr. ResUTAH72016
Sybille CynWYOMING72025
La SalUTAH62000
Beck 2UTAH62025
AspenCOLORADO52010
Wilson CreekCOLORADO52025
RadiumCOLORADO52011
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO52000
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO52024
La Sal 2UTAH52006
HannaUTAH52023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.