BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.030.000.09
20230.030.000.09
20240.030.000.09
20250.030.000.09
20260.030.000.09

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PeruOHIO51969
WaylandOHIO21993
HighlandNEW-YORK11986
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11986
DuanesburgNEW-YORK11987
Canadice LNEW-YORK11973
HamburgNEW-YORK12013
Cherry HillNEW-YORK11968
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK11989
E YoungstownNEW-YORK11992
SalemNEW-YORK12021
North EastonNEW-YORK11987
OgdensburgNEW-YORK11989
WillsboroNEW-YORK11995
PittsfieldOHIO12013
MiddlefieldOHIO11973
StrongsvilleOHIO11979
Herner CrnsOHIO11983
HebronOHIO12015
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA11989
CloverPENNSYLVANIA11989
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA11996
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA12003
North PownalVERMONT11976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.