BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Nighthawk In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.27
20260.020.000.26
20270.010.000.25
20280.000.000.25
20290.000.000.24

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LudeMINNESOTA42000
NebishMINNESOTA42015
Nett LakeMINNESOTA42018
CunardMICHIGAN32019
IsabellaMICHIGAN32000
RacoMICHIGAN32023
Red OakMICHIGAN32001
Betchler LksMICHIGAN32024
WaskishMINNESOTA31978
IronsMICHIGAN21989
Brush CreekMICHIGAN22013
OberlinMICHIGAN21983
Mille LacsMINNESOTA22008
BenaMINNESOTA21967
ChaffeyWISCONSIN22016
ConoverWISCONSIN22023
OntonagonMICHIGAN12004
BerglandMICHIGAN11990
MareniscoMICHIGAN12005
HermanMICHIGAN11991
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN12000
IshpemingMICHIGAN12016
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN12012
WilsonMICHIGAN11999
ShingletonMICHIGAN11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.