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Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Common Grackle in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Grackle in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Common Grackle In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 138% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 7.5–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+138%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 138% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 7.5–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025366.665
2026366.865
2027367.065
2028367.266
2029377.566

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Common Grackle in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniorLOUISIANA2481991
WoodlawnLOUISIANA2382021
LafitteLOUISIANA1351991
EstherLOUISIANA622024
KatyTEXAS582024
ChinquapinTEXAS582024
CreoleLOUISIANA381987
VintonLOUISIANA312009
IndianolaTEXAS312024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA282011
HackberryLOUISIANA212016
Rock IslandTEXAS212024
StowellTEXAS202022
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA192019
RichardLOUISIANA182024
Port AcresTEXAS182024
VanderbiltTEXAS171976
Oyster LakeTEXAS162024
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA112008
Forked IslandLOUISIANA112024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA102024
KaplanLOUISIANA92023
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA81981
MauriceLOUISIANA82024
GlencoeLOUISIANA72018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.