BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Common Grackle in Gulf Coastal Prairie has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Grackle in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Common Grackle In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 7.0–65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 7.0–65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026356.264
2027356.464
2028366.665
2029366.865
2030367.065

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Common Grackle in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniorLOUISIANA2481991
WoodlawnLOUISIANA2382021
StowellTEXAS1932025
LafitteLOUISIANA1351991
EstherLOUISIANA662025
KatyTEXAS652025
RichardLOUISIANA532025
CreoleLOUISIANA381987
Forked IslandLOUISIANA332025
VintonLOUISIANA312009
IndianolaTEXAS312024
Oyster LakeTEXAS312025
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA282011
Port AcresTEXAS282025
Rock IslandTEXAS272025
ChinquapinTEXAS252025
HackberryLOUISIANA212016
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA192019
Vinton 2LOUISIANA172025
VanderbiltTEXAS171976
DanburyTEXAS132025
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA112008
KaplanLOUISIANA92023
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA81981
MauriceLOUISIANA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.