BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Common Grackle in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.90.0021
20278.20.0020
20287.50.0019
20296.80.0019
20306.10.0018

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Common Grackle in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St LucieFLORIDA1172025
KendallFLORIDA1101991
Boca RatonFLORIDA1071994
RedlandsFLORIDA932024
Shawano 2FLORIDA902011
Dale MabryFLORIDA831988
Plantation KFLORIDA802004
GardnerFLORIDA701999
Ridge HarborFLORIDA672025
AlturasFLORIDA641986
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA612004
Key LargoFLORIDA571991
IndiantownFLORIDA552017
Punta GordaFLORIDA522015
Key WestFLORIDA461987
WebbFLORIDA462025
ChildsFLORIDA412022
HomesteadFLORIDA402025
Holey LandFLORIDA402025
Vero BeachFLORIDA392022
Wildernes PkFLORIDA362014
Myakka HeadFLORIDA332011
Winter GardnFLORIDA332019
CorbettFLORIDA272025
Sunniland GrFLORIDA242021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.