BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Common Grackle in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 8.5–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.5–6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 8.5–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025411468
2026401366
2027381165
20283710.063
2029358.562

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Common Grackle in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClarksvilleNEW-JERSEY5291991
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY2692012
HarmonyMARYLAND2642017
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY2582009
MatthewsMARYLAND2572024
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE2381991
HolleyvilleDELAWARE2042004
DoverDELAWARE2001987
FruitlandMARYLAND1811998
FrankfordDELAWARE1642012
SinepuxentMARYLAND1601978
MasonvilleNEW-JERSEY1501970
Milton 2DELAWARE1492017
CokesburyMARYLAND1492024
Tall TimbersMARYLAND1452014
Snow HillMARYLAND1421976
MillsboroDELAWARE1392024
HarringtonDELAWARE1262024
MiltonDELAWARE1242016
HauppaugeNEW-YORK1222018
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY1161977
MelitotaMARYLAND1112024
Broomes IslMARYLAND1041996
Piney NeckMARYLAND1002024
Grove NeckMARYLAND1001996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.