BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Common Grackle in Central Hardwoods has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Central Hardwoods: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.0023
20260.000.0023
20270.000.0023
20280.000.0023
20290.000.0023

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Common Grackle in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY2471978
MillionKENTUCKY1581986
Buena VistaKENTUCKY1372017
Cross PlainsINDIANA1362024
PlumKENTUCKY1192024
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY1182023
BoxvilleKENTUCKY1071983
Cole CampMISSOURI901990
GoshenKENTUCKY891999
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY871998
ScottsburgINDIANA782024
Million 2KENTUCKY772024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY742021
McbrayerKENTUCKY692024
LeveeKENTUCKY631982
Bays ForkKENTUCKY632019
NewberryINDIANA592024
EastviewKENTUCKY562024
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY522003
PleasurevillKENTUCKY492024
CyprssINDIANA472024
DixieKENTUCKY462019
East UnionKENTUCKY442022
MillersburgINDIANA412024
RomeOHIO412024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.