BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Common Grackle in Central Hardwoods has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has collapsed in Central Hardwoods: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0023
20270.000.0023
20280.000.0023
20290.000.0023
20300.000.0023

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Common Grackle in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY2471978
MillionKENTUCKY1581986
PlumKENTUCKY1492025
Buena VistaKENTUCKY1372017
BoxvilleKENTUCKY1071983
ScottsburgINDIANA982025
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY902025
Cole CampMISSOURI901990
GoshenKENTUCKY891999
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY871998
Million 2KENTUCKY772024
PleasurevillKENTUCKY772025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE762025
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY742021
McbrayerKENTUCKY732025
NewberryINDIANA642025
LeveeKENTUCKY631982
Bays ForkKENTUCKY632019
EastviewKENTUCKY562025
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY522003
VevayINDIANA482025
DixieKENTUCKY462019
RomeOHIO452025
MorganfieldKENTUCKY442025
MillersburgINDIANA412024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.