BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+91%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.00.0032
20268.80.0032
20278.50.0032
20288.20.0031
20298.00.0031

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Common Grackle in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HenriettaTEXAS842022
Mount ZionTEXAS832024
Wolfe CityTEXAS351987
GauseTEXAS331997
MuldoonTEXAS242024
Blue RidgeTEXAS212024
HobsonTEXAS182024
OlneyTEXAS162024
LocoOKLAHOMA141985
GrafordTEXAS142019
OakwoodTEXAS131987
Arenosa CrkTEXAS122023
E GeorgetownTEXAS121979
HearneTEXAS112024
Miller GroveTEXAS102024
WalburgTEXAS102024
ThorntonTEXAS91984
DallasTEXAS92024
MegargelTEXAS92015
Oak GroveTEXAS81999
Peach CreekTEXAS71991
Thornton 2TEXAS72010
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA62024
DuncanOKLAHOMA62024
SadlerTEXAS62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.