BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.50.0031
20278.30.0031
20288.00.0031
20297.70.0031
20307.50.0030

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Common Grackle in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HenriettaTEXAS842022
Mount ZionTEXAS752025
Wolfe CityTEXAS351987
GauseTEXAS331997
WalburgTEXAS312025
OlneyTEXAS162024
HobsonTEXAS152025
CarlosTEXAS152025
LocoOKLAHOMA141985
GrafordTEXAS142025
OakwoodTEXAS131987
Arenosa CrkTEXAS122023
E GeorgetownTEXAS121979
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA112025
HearneTEXAS102025
NobleOKLAHOMA92025
ThorntonTEXAS91984
MuldoonTEXAS82025
Oak GroveTEXAS81999
Oak Grove 2TEXAS82025
Peach CreekTEXAS71991
AlbanyTEXAS72025
LydiaTEXAS72025
Thornton 2TEXAS72010
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.