BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Prairie Potholes has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-17%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Grackle in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Common Grackle In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 67 (95% range 45–89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
45–8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 67 (95% range 45–89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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2030674589

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Common Grackle in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA3921984
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA3002014
Winside 2NEBRASKA2642022
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA2312025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA2222025
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA2152025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA1902025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA1612025
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA1502025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA1452025
HartlandMINNESOTA1362017
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA1352024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA1322025
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA1282025
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA1222025
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA1212025
MaynardMINNESOTA1162015
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA1152023
Redwood FallMINNESOTA1142025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA1092025
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA1092014
WorthingtonMINNESOTA1072025
TracyMINNESOTA1032025
TitonkaIOWA992025
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA991999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.