BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-82%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.20.0014
20265.90.0014
20275.50.0013
20285.10.0013
20294.80.0013

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish RockCALIFORNIA1192014
YrekaCALIFORNIA1192019
CanbyOREGON912024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA842023
Sandy RiverOREGON752006
HoneydewCALIFORNIA722017
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON592024
GazelleCALIFORNIA482021
MendotaWASHINGTON481988
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA432012
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA392019
AdairOREGON382024
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA372021
UmpquaOREGON362024
SalemOREGON352024
ElktonOREGON302024
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON292024
HullvilleCALIFORNIA252019
Warm BeachWASHINGTON252017
Secret ValOREGON242022
GlasgowOREGON232022
Hazel CampOREGON222022
DerbyOREGON211993
Sheep MtnALASKA202004
AlderpointCALIFORNIA192012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.