BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 110× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

110×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 110× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 16 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 16 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025149.919
2026151019
2027151019
2028151120
2029161120

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrianaALABAMA4172012
CollinwoodTENNESSEE1922024
SwaimALABAMA1822024
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI1252024
White HouseTENNESSEE1102019
RiverqueenKENTUCKY712024
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS692023
CraneMISSOURI672024
WashingtonINDIANA612024
Lewis ForestTENNESSEE602024
WrigleyTENNESSEE582022
GeorgiaINDIANA552024
Clear SpringINDIANA542024
HustonvilleKENTUCKY502024
MincyMISSOURI502024
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS462024
WhitewaterMISSOURI462024
SpencerINDIANA412024
Pond CreekTENNESSEE352024
Indian SpgsINDIANA312024
NewberryINDIANA312024
East UnionKENTUCKY302022
BrazilINDIANA292024
BaronOKLAHOMA292023
YellvilleARKANSAS262022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.