BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 109× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

109×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 109× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cliff Swallow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151019
2027151119
2028151120
2029161120
2030161120

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrianaALABAMA4172012
SwaimALABAMA1492025
White HouseTENNESSEE1102019
NewberryINDIANA1022025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE952025
Indian SpgsINDIANA722025
WashingtonINDIANA712025
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS692023
RiverqueenKENTUCKY622025
GeorgiaINDIANA612025
WrigleyTENNESSEE582022
Clear SpringINDIANA542025
CascadeMISSOURI462025
Pond CreekTENNESSEE422025
SpencerINDIANA412024
WhitewaterMISSOURI382025
Wheeler DamALABAMA362025
CraneMISSOURI362025
CentertownMISSOURI352025
BelknapILLINOIS332025
PulaskiILLINOIS312025
EugeneMISSOURI292025
BaronOKLAHOMA292023
Lewis ForestTENNESSEE272025
CorydonINDIANA252010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.