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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Edwards Plateau has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-90%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has collapsed in Edwards Plateau: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.80.0040
20269.40.0040
20279.10.0039
20288.70.0039
20298.40.0039

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FitzhughTEXAS2031983
KempnerTEXAS402019
Indian MtnTEXAS341998
AdamsvilleTEXAS322024
BoerneTEXAS252024
LeanderTEXAS242006
RockspringTEXAS142023
HarperTEXAS82024
ManorTEXAS72024
San SabaTEXAS52017
Allen CreekTEXAS52008
PidcokeTEXAS42017
Pidcoke 2TEXAS32023
LeakeyTEXAS32024
Valley SpgsTEXAS22006
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS22023
UtopiaTEXAS12024
GeorgetownTEXAS11970
Dripping SpgTEXAS12018
MontellTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.