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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Edwards Plateau has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-87%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has collapsed in Edwards Plateau: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cliff Swallow In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 9.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 0.00–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 9.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 0.00–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.40.0039
20279.10.0039
20288.70.0039
20298.40.0038
20308.00.0038

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FitzhughTEXAS2031983
AdamsvilleTEXAS832025
BoerneTEXAS452025
KempnerTEXAS402019
Indian MtnTEXAS341998
LeanderTEXAS242006
Pidcoke 2TEXAS152025
RockspringTEXAS142023
UtopiaTEXAS132025
ManorTEXAS72024
San SabaTEXAS52017
Allen CreekTEXAS52008
PidcokeTEXAS42017
LeakeyTEXAS32024
Valley SpgsTEXAS22006
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS22023
GeorgetownTEXAS11970
HarperTEXAS12025
Dripping SpgTEXAS12018
MontellTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.