BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+216%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 216% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 30–71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 51 (95% range 30–71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026492970
2027502970
2028503071
2029503071
2030513071

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KanopolisKANSAS14052025
BeaverOKLAHOMA6532018
GraybackTEXAS2992024
LakeviewTEXAS2752025
GirardTEXAS2712025
ChildressTEXAS2642025
HollisOKLAHOMA2522025
RandlettOKLAHOMA2282025
ErickOKLAHOMA2252024
BookerTEXAS2122025
AshlandKANSAS2072021
SicklesOKLAHOMA1892021
DouglasOKLAHOMA1802022
CoopertonOKLAHOMA1732025
StrattonNEBRASKA1662025
CoatsKANSAS1462025
LookoutOKLAHOMA1422025
SumnerNEBRASKA1312025
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA1291994
CashionOKLAHOMA1282024
VerdenOKLAHOMA1272017
HodgesKANSAS1112014
HunterOKLAHOMA1112024
AlbertKANSAS1102025
KearneyNEBRASKA1072025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.