BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+166%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 49 (95% range 29–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 49 (95% range 29–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025482868
2026482868
2027482869
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2029492969

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BeaverOKLAHOMA6532018
GraybackTEXAS2992024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA2742024
Beaver CreekTEXAS2432024
SumnerNEBRASKA2322024
ErickOKLAHOMA2252024
DaltonKANSAS2182024
AshlandKANSAS2072021
StrattonNEBRASKA2002024
SicklesOKLAHOMA1892021
DouglasOKLAHOMA1802022
HollisOKLAHOMA1692024
GirardTEXAS1612023
LookoutOKLAHOMA1552023
HanoverKANSAS1502023
ChildressTEXAS1422024
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA1291994
CashionOKLAHOMA1282024
VerdenOKLAHOMA1272017
HodgesKANSAS1112014
HunterOKLAHOMA1112024
HollenbergKANSAS932023
HopewellKANSAS862018
TegardenOKLAHOMA812016
BookerTEXAS792024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.