BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-42%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
134Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Cliff Swallow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 0.00–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 0.00–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026300.0061
2027300.0061
2028300.0061
2029300.0061
2030300.0061

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA6282025
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA3722025
PowdervilleMONTANA2322025
KayceeWYOMING1992025
BillWYOMING1882018
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA1652004
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA1642025
NatronaWYOMING1601992
WinnettMONTANA1552025
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA1492025
CusterMONTANA1452022
ShawmutMONTANA1362025
RozetWYOMING1282025
SussexWYOMING1162025
Pine TreeWYOMING1091995
AlbionMONTANA1072025
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA1062011
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA972025
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA902011
WebsterMONTANA822025
PineyWYOMING741990
ForsythMONTANA732023
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA672025
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA632025
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA632014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.