BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-38%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 29 (95% range 0.00–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 29 (95% range 0.00–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025290.0060
2026290.0060
2027290.0060
2028290.0060
2029290.0060

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA4432023
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA2422023
PowdervilleMONTANA2072024
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA1982023
BillWYOMING1882018
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA1792023
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA1742024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA1652004
Custer 2MONTANA1602024
NatronaWYOMING1601992
DwyerWYOMING1552019
ArvadaWYOMING1522024
CusterMONTANA1452022
SussexWYOMING1182024
Pine TreeWYOMING1091995
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA1072018
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA1062011
Seely 2WYOMING1062024
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA902011
WebsterMONTANA812024
ShawmutMONTANA752024
PineyWYOMING741990
ForsythMONTANA732023
WinnettMONTANA652023
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA632014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.