BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clapper Rail In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Clapper Rail in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Clapper Rail in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Clapper Rail In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.060.000.23
20240.060.000.23
20250.060.000.23
20260.060.000.23
20270.060.000.23

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Clapper Rail in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinelandsFLORIDA111992
Key WestFLORIDA41987
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA32016
Punta GordaFLORIDA21980
Vero BeachFLORIDA21998
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12010
Plantation KFLORIDA11983
AripekaFLORIDA12022
Weaver StnFLORIDA12011
Card SoundFLORIDA12003
Merritt IslFLORIDA12008
Ridge HarborFLORIDA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.