BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chukar In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGame birds

Chukar in Northern Rockies has surged: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+75%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chukar has surged in Northern Rockies: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Chukar In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 66% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 66% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.000.38
20270.190.000.39
20280.190.000.39
20290.190.000.39
20300.200.000.39

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Chukar in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BridgeportOREGON192025
TwickenhamOREGON182025
NowoodWYOMING122025
SpartaOREGON112025
GeboWYOMING82025
ChallisIDAHO52025
MonumentOREGON52025
TroyOREGON42024
CloverlandWASHINGTON42025
Salmon RiverIDAHO22025
LovellWYOMING22024
MeeteetseWYOMING22025
TensleepWYOMING22025
Sand DrawWYOMING22024
Flamin GorgeWYOMING22010
CobaltIDAHO12007
Crane CreekIDAHO12012
PolsonMONTANA11982
LogdellOREGON12018
Eagle RockOREGON11976
Silver CreekOREGON12007
Hells CanyonOREGON11992
MadrasOREGON12023
NewbridgeOREGON12025
RandolphUTAH12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.