BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chukar In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Chukar in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+24%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chukar in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.31
20260.150.000.31
20270.150.000.31
20280.150.000.31
20290.150.000.31

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Chukar in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpartaOREGON182000
GeboWYOMING112024
TwickenhamOREGON92024
Salmon RiverIDAHO42021
TroyOREGON42024
CloverlandWASHINGTON32024
MeeteetseWYOMING32024
TensleepWYOMING32015
ChallisIDAHO22021
BridgeportOREGON22022
MonumentOREGON22024
NowoodWYOMING22024
LovellWYOMING22024
Sand DrawWYOMING22024
Flamin GorgeWYOMING22010
CobaltIDAHO12007
Crane CreekIDAHO12012
PolsonMONTANA11982
LogdellOREGON12018
Eagle RockOREGON11976
Silver CreekOREGON12007
Hells CanyonOREGON11992
MadrasOREGON12023
RandolphUTAH12010
E. Bear LakeUTAH12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.