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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.13.9
20262.51.13.9
20272.51.13.9
20282.51.13.9
20292.51.03.9

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StarkARKANSAS222024
DerryLOUISIANA141989
LongstreetLOUISIANA142024
SpringhillARKANSAS92022
IvanLOUISIANA92013
Ivan 2LOUISIANA92016
BlancoOKLAHOMA92016
StephensARKANSAS82024
NanceARKANSAS82023
NatchezLOUISIANA82023
Hargis 2LOUISIANA82014
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA82023
BlakelyARKANSAS71999
Fort PolkLOUISIANA71975
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA62021
CaledoniaTEXAS62021
EastonTEXAS62004
TroutLOUISIANA52024
CheniereLOUISIANA52024
CrowsARKANSAS41991
Coal HillARKANSAS42023
Turkey CreekLOUISIANA41998
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA42024
CrossroadsTEXAS42024
Old MiloARKANSAS32014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.