BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 581% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+581%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
273Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 581% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 15–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 15–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181322
2026181422
2027181423
2028191423
2029191523

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marion 2OHIO472024
Red RockIOWA432024
FultonOHIO422024
HarveysburgOHIO391996
W CarrolltonOHIO392015
RaymondWISCONSIN392024
MaplewoodINDIANA372021
KalidaOHIO372019
MarionOHIO372023
Witts StationINDIANA352024
DecaturINDIANA332024
EmdenMISSOURI332024
SheffieldILLINOIS322024
GalvestonINDIANA322024
Kings CreekOHIO322015
NorwalkOHIO322024
UnionILLINOIS312017
DarrtownOHIO302021
AshleyOHIO292018
WallaceINDIANA282024
Kahoka2MISSOURI282024
No KentonOHIO282024
Harveysburg 2OHIO282024
HumboldtILLINOIS272024
SwayzeeINDIANA272023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.