BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 587% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+587%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
273Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 587% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 14–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 14–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181322
2027181422
2028181423
2029191423
2030191423

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FultonOHIO522025
BrookvilleINDIANA462025
Witts StationINDIANA432025
KalidaOHIO412025
AndersonINDIANA392025
HarveysburgOHIO391996
Marion 2OHIO392025
W CarrolltonOHIO392015
MaplewoodINDIANA372021
MarionOHIO372023
Red RockIOWA362025
EmdenMISSOURI332024
SheffieldILLINOIS322024
Kings CreekOHIO322015
NorwalkOHIO322024
CasstownOHIO322025
UnionILLINOIS312017
DarrtownOHIO302021
ThorntownINDIANA292025
AshleyOHIO292018
BelleviewILLINOIS282025
WallaceINDIANA282024
Kahoka2MISSOURI282024
KentonOHIO282025
New DoverOHIO272022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.