BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±223.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±223.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±223.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.26
20260.080.000.26
20270.080.000.26
20280.070.000.26
20290.070.000.26

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CottonwoodTEXAS71986
Massey LakeTEXAS52005
OakwoodTEXAS51995
LockhartTEXAS42021
HearneTEXAS32016
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA21967
DuncanOKLAHOMA21991
Lone OakTEXAS22006
OsageTEXAS21971
ComancheTEXAS22008
BeggsOKLAHOMA12009
NobleOKLAHOMA12008
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12021
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12018
CampbelltonTEXAS11979
Oak GroveTEXAS11997
GauseTEXAS11994
Glen RoseTEXAS12024
GrafordTEXAS11968
LydiaTEXAS11988
Miller GroveTEXAS12013
RhomeTEXAS12001
CayugaTEXAS12015
Gambill Ref.TEXAS12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.