BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.006.4
20262.30.006.3
20272.30.006.3
20282.30.006.3
20292.30.006.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LafitteLOUISIANA251991
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA152019
EstherLOUISIANA122024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS82024
VintonLOUISIANA62009
Vinton 2LOUISIANA62024
BaysideTEXAS62003
JuniorLOUISIANA51991
DanburyTEXAS52024
HackberryLOUISIANA42016
KaplanLOUISIANA42023
StowellTEXAS42010
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS42024
Bayside 2TEXAS42004
Moon Lake 2TEXAS42024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA32011
Hinkles FerTEXAS32023
Port AcresTEXAS32024
Bayside 3TEXAS32023
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA21976
MamouLOUISIANA21979
Forked IslandLOUISIANA22016
VanderbiltTEXAS21976
KatyTEXAS22023
ChinquapinTEXAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.