BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-87%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chimney Swift In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.002.0
20260.000.001.9
20270.000.001.9
20280.000.001.9
20290.000.001.9

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DallasTEXAS202024
ThorntonTEXAS151984
WeatherfordTEXAS132024
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA111977
GauseTEXAS111997
RhomeTEXAS102024
E GeorgetownTEXAS91979
KosseTEXAS92023
WalburgTEXAS92024
Wills PointTEXAS92016
SchroederTEXAS81995
Glen RoseTEXAS72015
Peach CreekTEXAS61992
OlaTEXAS62022
Thornton 3TEXAS52024
DuncanOKLAHOMA42021
Lone OakTEXAS42021
CayugaTEXAS42024
CarlosTEXAS42024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS42016
Gambill Ref.TEXAS42017
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA32018
LocoOKLAHOMA31984
Massey LakeTEXAS32024
OsageTEXAS32009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.