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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chimney Swift In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Edwards Plateau has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-75%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has collapsed in Edwards Plateau: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Chimney Swift In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.520.002.2
20270.460.002.2
20280.410.002.1
20290.360.002.1
20300.300.002.0

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeorgetownTEXAS91985
ManorTEXAS72024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS42025
LeanderTEXAS32005
LeakeyTEXAS32025
AdamsvilleTEXAS22024
MontellTEXAS22011
BoerneTEXAS12016
UtopiaTEXAS12023
FitzhughTEXAS11983
Valley SpgsTEXAS12024
HarperTEXAS12023
San SabaTEXAS12017
PidcokeTEXAS12016
KempnerTEXAS12022
Indian MtnTEXAS12018
Dripping SpgTEXAS12025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12023
Allen CreekTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.