BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chestnut-sided Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Chestnut-sided Warbler in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

-37%Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chestnut-sided Warbler in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Chestnut-sided Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-sided Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.010.000.03
20210.010.000.03
20220.010.000.03
20230.010.000.03
20240.010.000.03

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Chestnut-sided Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RupertARKANSAS12013
FultonARKANSAS12016
YellvilleARKANSAS12010
RudyARKANSAS12019
Ozark NfARKANSAS12019
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS11994
Cave In RockILLINOIS11994
BelmontINDIANA12015
Clear SpringINDIANA12007
HoosierINDIANA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.