BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chestnut-collared Longspur In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Chestnut-collared Longspur in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-56%Since 1969
64Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Chestnut-collared Longspur has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chestnut-collared Longspur in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029
2.8Projected 2029 index
0.00–8.395% range
±33.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.50.009.0
20263.30.008.8
20273.20.008.6
20283.00.008.5
20292.80.008.3

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Chestnut-collared Longspur in Prairie Potholes.
OswegoMONTANA772024
GlentanaMONTANA582024
Ester LakeMONTANA432024
ChinookMONTANA422024
VirgelleMONTANA352024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA291983
SacoMONTANA242024
ShelbyMONTANA232024
HarlemMONTANA152021
GlasgowMONTANA142024
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA141984
LambertMONTANA132024
WestbyMONTANA122024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA112024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA112012
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA102023
Long LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA92019
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA72024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA62022
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA62024
RedstoneMONTANA52024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA51994
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA52024
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA52010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.