BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Coastal California has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-78%Since 1971
12Routes In Region
24Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Cedar Waxwing has collapsed in Coastal California: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Coastal California is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1265.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029
0.53Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.095% range
±1265.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.560.002.1
20260.550.002.0
20270.550.002.0
20280.540.002.0
20290.530.002.0

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Coastal California.
Red BluffCALIFORNIA332024
Gold HillCALIFORNIA302010
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA242002
CalpellaCALIFORNIA201968
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA201989
FairfaxCALIFORNIA201990
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA122002
AuburnCALIFORNIA51977
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA41991
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA31997
TujungaCALIFORNIA21970
FolsomCALIFORNIA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.