BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Coastal California has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-78%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has collapsed in Coastal California: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cedar Waxwing In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Coastal California is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1265.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1265.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Coastal California is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1265.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.002.1
20260.550.002.0
20270.550.002.0
20280.540.002.0
20290.530.002.0

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red BluffCALIFORNIA332024
Gold HillCALIFORNIA302010
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA242002
CalpellaCALIFORNIA201968
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA201989
FairfaxCALIFORNIA201990
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA122002
AuburnCALIFORNIA51977
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA41991
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA31997
TujungaCALIFORNIA21970
FolsomCALIFORNIA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.