BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 740% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+740%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 740% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 6.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.7–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.5 (95% range 6.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.06.112
20269.16.312
20279.36.412
20289.46.512
20299.56.712

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarrenCONNECTICUT1322011
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND352018
Pr FrederickMARYLAND282023
MarionMASSACHUSETTS282024
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS282024
CokesburyMARYLAND272024
WillimanticCONNECTICUT242018
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY232009
Kittery PtMAINE222024
Long HillCONNECTICUT212019
HarmonyMARYLAND202017
HauppaugeNEW-YORK202018
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY192024
CranburyNEW-JERSEY192024
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS182019
Cape Cod NsMASSACHUSETTS182007
PomonaNEW-JERSEY182024
HolleyvilleDELAWARE162004
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS162022
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS152009
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY152012
WinslowNEW-JERSEY152024
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT142024
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS141994
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE141998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.