BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

12×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 7.0–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.46.412
20279.66.513
20289.76.713
20299.96.813
2030107.013

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CokesburyMARYLAND3902025
WarrenCONNECTICUT1322011
Kittery PtMAINE1032025
MarionMASSACHUSETTS432025
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND352018
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY312025
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS252025
WillimanticCONNECTICUT242018
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS232025
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY232009
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND222025
Long HillCONNECTICUT212019
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS212025
HarmonyMARYLAND202017
PomonaNEW-JERSEY202025
HauppaugeNEW-YORK202018
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY192024
CranburyNEW-JERSEY192024
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS182019
Cape Cod NsMASSACHUSETTS182007
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE182025
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT172025
HolleyvilleDELAWARE162004
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS162025
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS152009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.