BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Piedmont has surged: up 770% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+770%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Piedmont: up 770% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cedar Waxwing In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Piedmont is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Piedmont is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.42.56.3
20264.52.66.4
20274.62.76.5
20284.72.86.6
20294.82.86.7

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChesneeSOUTH-CAROLINA492002
EmmitsburgMARYLAND412024
MonticelloNORTH-CAROLINA302021
OlneyMARYLAND252024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND212024
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA211996
EarltonMARYLAND182024
MadonnaMARYLAND152022
AppomattoxVIRGINIA152016
BrodnaxVIRGINIA142023
MillervilleALABAMA132007
HiramGEORGIA121997
WheatonMARYLAND122024
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA122024
Great FallsVIRGINIA121968
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA102024
Van BibberMARYLAND92013
CallNORTH-CAROLINA92023
Mt GretnaPENNSYLVANIA92000
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA92024
MooresvilleNORTH-CAROLINA82001
BiscoeNORTH-CAROLINA72005
Mount AiryNORTH-CAROLINA72024
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA72022
MannboroVIRGINIA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.