BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+320%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
386Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.4–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.4–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.913
2026118.013
2027118.113
2028118.313
2029118.414

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkWEST-VIRGINIA1032021
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA732024
FinzelMARYLAND602024
McdonoughNEW-YORK582017
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA472021
LynchPENNSYLVANIA422024
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA402022
JenningsMARYLAND372024
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA372024
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA332024
Ltl Pine CrPENNSYLVANIA332024
StonecreekOHIO322024
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA322018
MeridaleNEW-YORK312024
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA292024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA282024
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA272024
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA262024
OakmanGEORGIA252017
WilliamsportMARYLAND252024
EldredPENNSYLVANIA252022
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA242022
ClintonWEST-VIRGINIA242024
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA232024
Wayne N.F.OHIO222021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.