BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 336% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+336%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
387Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 336% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.2–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026107.713
2027117.813
2028118.013
2029118.113
2030118.214

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeeseytownPENNSYLVANIA802025
McdonoughNEW-YORK582017
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA472021
WilliamsportMARYLAND462025
Pt PleasantWEST-VIRGINIA452025
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA402022
RidgwayPENNSYLVANIA322018
FinzelMARYLAND312025
Three ForksWEST-VIRGINIA302025
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA292025
BeaverPENNSYLVANIA282025
Lost RiverWEST-VIRGINIA282025
JenningsMARYLAND272025
SmithfieldOHIO272025
StonecreekOHIO262025
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA262024
BlacksburgVIRGINIA262025
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA262025
OakmanGEORGIA252017
EldredPENNSYLVANIA252022
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA242022
Valley HeadWEST-VIRGINIA242025
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA212025
SmithsburgMARYLAND202014
RiftonNEW-YORK201986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.