BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+96%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 182% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.02–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±368.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+182%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±368.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 182% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.02–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±368.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.57
20260.290.000.58
20270.290.000.58
20280.300.010.59
20290.310.020.60

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WhitehouseALABAMA252019
VinaALABAMA152015
Trace LeeMISSISSIPPI152016
HoltALABAMA122003
CuthbertGEORGIA81997
SurryVIRGINIA82021
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA72021
SweetlipsTENNESSEE72003
TrentonTENNESSEE72005
PungoVIRGINIA72024
RoseNORTH-CAROLINA62006
WeirMISSISSIPPI52019
BishopvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA52012
BranchvilleVIRGINIA52024
VernonALABAMA31997
ShilohKENTUCKY32012
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA31991
MattamuskeetNORTH-CAROLINA32017
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA32017
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA32022
Lake SurfNORTH-CAROLINA32021
WhitevilleTENNESSEE32003
Big SandyTENNESSEE32023
NewvilleVIRGINIA32024
GreensboroALABAMA22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.