BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+368%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.32 (95% range 0.03–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±350.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±350.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.32 (95% range 0.03–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±350.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.010.58
20270.300.010.59
20280.310.020.59
20290.310.030.60
20300.320.030.61

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WhitehouseALABAMA252019
VinaALABAMA152015
Trace LeeMISSISSIPPI152016
HoltALABAMA122003
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA102025
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA92025
CuthbertGEORGIA81997
SweetlipsTENNESSEE72003
TrentonTENNESSEE72005
RoseNORTH-CAROLINA62006
Mount PisgahSOUTH-CAROLINA62025
WeirMISSISSIPPI52019
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA52025
Sheep RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA52025
Broad CreekNORTH-CAROLINA52025
BishopvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA52012
BranchvilleVIRGINIA52024
PungoVIRGINIA52025
VernonALABAMA31997
ShilohKENTUCKY32012
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA31991
MattamuskeetNORTH-CAROLINA32017
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA32017
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA32022
Lake SurfNORTH-CAROLINA32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.