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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-31%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cedar Waxwing in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Cedar Waxwing In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±271.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±271.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±271.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.130.000.90
20240.130.000.89
20250.130.000.89
20260.130.000.89
20270.130.000.89

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY152014
HarrisburgARKANSAS21972
SaffellARKANSAS22007
DeventerMISSOURI22005
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE22013
BardwellKENTUCKY12002
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.