BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+208%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.9–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.9–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.416
2027127.516
2028127.616
2029127.816
2030127.916

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RochesterMICHIGAN652025
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN631987
WhitewaterMINNESOTA452000
LawrenceMICHIGAN362025
NashvilleMICHIGAN352025
PackertownINDIANA332004
CascoWISCONSIN322025
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA302025
KielWISCONSIN292025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA272025
BravoMICHIGAN262023
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN262025
ParisWISCONSIN262025
AdrianMICHIGAN242017
LapeerMICHIGAN242025
HomerMICHIGAN232021
KnappMINNESOTA232025
MontereyMICHIGAN222025
Fall RiverWISCONSIN222025
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN222025
Cherry ValILLINOIS212003
Brook ParkMINNESOTA212025
MerrillWISCONSIN212025
OmroWISCONSIN212001
MukwonagoWISCONSIN212004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.