BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+185%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.9–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.9–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.416
2026127.516
2027127.616
2028127.716
2029127.916

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN631987
CohoctahMICHIGAN452024
WhitewaterMINNESOTA452000
GalesburgMICHIGAN382024
CascoWISCONSIN362024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN342024
PackertownINDIANA332004
PardeevilleWISCONSIN312024
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN302024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA292024
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN282024
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN282024
MerrillWISCONSIN272024
BravoMICHIGAN262023
No BradleyMICHIGAN252024
LawrenceMICHIGAN242024
AdrianMICHIGAN242017
HudsonWISCONSIN242023
ParisWISCONSIN242024
HomerMICHIGAN232021
HebronWISCONSIN232024
MiddleburyINDIANA222024
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN222024
Cherry ValILLINOIS212003
OmroWISCONSIN212001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.