BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+111%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Cedar Waxwing In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 443% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+443%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 443% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.68
20260.310.000.69
20270.310.000.69
20280.320.000.70
20290.330.000.71

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DaltonKANSAS342021
GordonNEBRASKA91982
KanopolisKANSAS81993
Beloit 2KANSAS82013
ChambersNEBRASKA72023
WellingtonKANSAS62022
HanoverKANSAS62022
BelvidereNEBRASKA62022
StrattonNEBRASKA42015
TableNEBRASKA42015
BradyNEBRASKA42018
NenzelNEBRASKA42022
HollenbergKANSAS32019
GoveKANSAS31997
JamestownKANSAS32014
AlmeriaNEBRASKA32021
BuckeyeKANSAS21997
CovertKANSAS22003
SolomonKANSAS21997
BerwetKANSAS22018
BeloitKANSAS22002
LibertyNEBRASKA22001
SewardNEBRASKA22022
KearneyNEBRASKA22024
PetersburgNEBRASKA22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.