BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 395% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+395%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 395% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cedar Waxwing In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.39–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.39–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.341.3
20260.830.351.3
20270.840.361.3
20280.860.381.3
20290.870.391.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA422024
SavageMONTANA292013
HighwoodMONTANA172023
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA162024
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA132008
Reed PointMONTANA102024
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA102018
LindsayMONTANA92023
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA92023
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA82018
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING82012
Cabin CreekMONTANA72023
BrusettMONTANA62023
WyarnoWYOMING61993
Two DotMONTANA52014
CrookstonNEBRASKA52024
SeelyWYOMING51999
KayceeWYOMING52022
DaytonWYOMING42024
UptonWYOMING42024
CircleMONTANA31994
ShawmutMONTANA32004
ForsythMONTANA32022
LocateMONTANA32022
BrandenbergMONTANA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.