BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 345% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+345%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 345% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Cedar Waxwing In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.17–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.17–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.140.36
20260.260.150.36
20270.260.150.37
20280.270.160.37
20290.270.170.38

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH132023
FerronUTAH132007
Logan CanyonUTAH72019
AltonahUTAH62007
KamasUTAH52024
Dolores RivCOLORADO42005
PaoniaCOLORADO42023
NuclaCOLORADO42021
Cortez 2COLORADO42017
ParlinCOLORADO31997
Blackhead PkCOLORADO32014
De BequeCOLORADO32010
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO32019
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO32016
Moon LakeUTAH32001
Heber Mtn.UTAH32013
Fletcher PkWYOMING32024
YampaCOLORADO22023
BufordCOLORADO22022
AspenCOLORADO22024
RosevaleCOLORADO22011
SummitvilleCOLORADO22015
Dunckley PasCOLORADO22024
Deadman Rd.COLORADO22024
WalsenburgCOLORADO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.