BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+201%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cedar Waxwing In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 11–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171123
2026171123
2027171124
2028171124
2029181124

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA552023
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK482024
PenfieldNEW-YORK472024
ShaftsburyVERMONT452023
N WilmurtNEW-YORK431998
NashvilleNEW-YORK422018
AusterlitzNEW-YORK382024
CayugaNEW-YORK352024
GarrettsvileOHIO351991
OrleansNEW-YORK342024
BranchportNEW-YORK302024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK272004
OgdensburgNEW-YORK262024
New SomersetOHIO241993
E YoungstownNEW-YORK232023
HinesburgVERMONT221994
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA202024
HiramOHIO192021
Ballston LkNEW-YORK171995
PulaskiNEW-YORK172024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK162024
North EastonNEW-YORK162024
BalmatNEW-YORK162008
HighlandNEW-YORK152022
RandolphNEW-YORK152018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.